Lagos State can exit COVID-19 on May 5 – Analytics

Mr Sanwo-Olu, Governor of Lagos State 

*May extend COVID-19 lockdown to April end, introduce tighter rules

Lagos State government has expressed optimism to exit COVID-19 on May 5, noting that In order to have early exit, the state may extend the lockdown to the end of April, and introduce tighter lockdown rules.

It said this at the weekend in its COVID-19 analytics which covered the period from 16th March when Lagos recorded its first case to 7th April and a projection covering April 18 to 30.

In its projection, the state plans to “maintain 25% discharge rate and 10% new infections; increase the lockdown days. By ‪18th April‬, 336 people will have the virus in Lagos. By ‪18th to 30th April‬, there will be no infection in Lagos and the death rate will be max 3%. That is 10 to 20 people will die.”

The state, according to the analytics, plans to maintain 25% discharge rate and let the new cases be 20%. Going to 20% means relaxing the lockdown a bit and allowing contact, stating, “It means that Lagos can exit covid-19 ‪on 5th May‬, having handled 77,000 infections and 3,000 to 6,000 deaths.”

According to the analytics, “This is worst case projection. 30% discharge rate and 30% new cases. Allow emotions and start going out now. By ‪16th May‬, there will be about 3,000,000 cases and 90,000 to 180,000 deaths. To complicate the issue, there will be no end in view.

On the chances to get infected, the analytics stated, 60% chance if family member is infected; 35% chance if you travel or hang out and 15% chance if in the office or with close friend.

Within the mentioned period, according to the analytics, Lagos State recorded 130 cases of people that tested positive to covid-19, which means that within 23 days, Lagos recorded 130 cases.

In March, the growth rate of recorded cases, analytics stated, was in double digits and touched 30s on few days, noting that last week, it came down to lower double digits, few zeros and one single digit.

“Discharge rate climbed from 2% on 29th March to 26% on 7th April. This is good news.

“It is interesting to note that the discharge rate is higher than new case growth rate. It means that people are recovering faster than the infection rate. This is very good,” Lagos State stated in its analytics.

Lagos has attributed the good result to three key activities namely, 1. 50% of the result came from increased capacity for testing and taking care of patients.

According to the analytics, “When they created food bank and distributed to the needy, it took Lagos to 65%. They enforced laws on social distancing and sit at home, and it took them to 80%.”

Lagos State, the analytics stated, “is saying that there is a gap of 20% before they can get to 100%,” even as they have moved ahead to achieve 100.

To achieve 100%, the state plans to keep current discharge rate at 25%; keep new case rate at 9% and increase enforcement on social distancing and sit at home which they expect will take them to 95%, leaving 5% gap.